Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lowe homered to center (421 feet), Seager scored and García scored.2–10
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–10
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 22–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 12–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–10
- 8García grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Semien scored, Langford out at second, Seager to third.2–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 8Smith hit sacrifice fly to right, Taveras scored, Semien to third.2–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 8Grossman homered to left center (413 feet).2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 6Smith singled to center, Semien scored, Seager to second.2–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Lowe singled to center, García scored on error, Lowe safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Robert Jr..2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 12–3
- 5García doubled to center, Seager scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 70%
- ML CHW +220 / TEX -270
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 71.5%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -234
- CHW +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.3 – 5.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +7 | CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +160 Elo | TEX 71.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 71.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 71.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.9 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 30th of 3010–42 | Road vs home | 27–2312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–54 | 43–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 21–39 |
| Underdog | 43–51 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders | 45–57–1 | 41–59–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–7 TEX in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.