Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Tommy PhamBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Drew ThorpePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-4
- Seth LugoPitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Blanco singled to left, Renfroe scored, Garcia to third.1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Garcia singled to left, Waters scored, Renfroe to second.1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 8Renfroe singled to right, Witt Jr. scored, Waters to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Isbel sacrificed to pitcher, Garcia scored, Blanco to second.1–1
- 6Pham singled to center, Lopez scored.1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- KC 69%
- ML CHW +210 / KC -255
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- KC: Elo 65.4%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -223
- CHW +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.4 – 5.1 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +13 | CHW: Drew Thorpe: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +111 Elo | KC 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 64.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 30th of 3010–39 | Road vs home | 33–183rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–53 | 57–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 22–21 |
| Underdog | 41–50 | 35–20 |
| Overs–unders | 45–54–1 | 40–57–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 7–15 KC in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 22.