Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Korey LeeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lee homered to center (421 feet).1–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 5Fermin singled to right, Renfroe scored, Massey to third.0–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 5Massey singled to right, Perez scored and Witt Jr. scored, Renfroe to third.0–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5Renfroe hit by pitch, Isbel scored, Perez to second, Witt Jr. to third.0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 5Pasquantino hit sacrifice fly to right, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to second, Isbel to third.0–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Witt Jr. singled to center, Garcia scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Witt Jr. homered to left (399 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- KC 67%
- ML CHW +195 / KC -235
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- KC: Elo 65.8%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- KC -207
- CHW +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.5 – 5.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −6 | CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +113 Elo | KC 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 65.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 30th of 3010–37 | Road vs home | 31–183rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–51 | 55–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 20–21 |
| Underdog | 41–48 | 35–20 |
| Overs–unders | 45–52–1 | 40–55–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 7–13 KC in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 20.