Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benintendi homered to right (377 feet).2–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Smith doubled to right, Semien scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 3Vaughn singled to left, Lee scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Smith stole home, García stole second.0–2
- 1Smith stole home, García stole second.0–2
- 1García singled to right, Grossman scored, Smith to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML CHW +110 / TEX -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 64.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1401 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −9 | CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +105 Elo | TEX 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.9 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 30th of 3010–41 | Road vs home | 26–2315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–54 | 43–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 21–38 |
| Underdog | 42–51 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders | 45–56–1 | 41–58–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–6 TEX in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.