Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yariel RodriguezPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rortvedt doubled to right, Arozarena scored.3–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 8Varsho scored on error, Kirk safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Walls, Kirk safe at second on error.2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 8Turner scored, Varsho to second on passed ball by Rortvedt.2–5
- 8Turner scored, Varsho to second on passed ball by Rortvedt.2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 8Varsho singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored, Turner to third.2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 8Turner singled to left, Springer scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Arozarena singled to left, Palacios scored, B. Lowe to second.2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5J. Lowe singled to right, Arozarena scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (399 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Horwitz scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML TB -120 / TOR +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- TB: Elo 48.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +10 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +10 Elo | TOR 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.725th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 3024–23 | Road vs home | 22–2727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–54 | 48–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 21–32 |
| Underdog | 27–21 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 50–51 | 53–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 12–9 TOR in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.