Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Justin TurnerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Paredes grounded into double play, second to first to shortstop, Walls scored, Palacios out at second.4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 6Turner homered to left center (387 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6Guerrero Jr. homered to center (424 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5B. Lowe homered to right (389 feet), Palacios scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2J. Lowe singled to right, Arozarena scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML TB +115 / TOR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- TB +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.0 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +1 | TB: Shawn Armstrong: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +13 Elo | TOR 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 3023–23 | Road vs home | 22–2627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–54 | 48–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 21–31 |
| Underdog | 26–21 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 50–50 | 53–45–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 11–9 TOR in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.