Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clement singled to left, Berroa scored, Horwitz to second, Guerrero Jr. to third.5–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Jansen hit sacrifice fly to left, Springer scored.5–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 5García homered to right (328 feet), Langford scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 4Jimenez singled to center, Schneider scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Heim singled to left, Grossman scored and Seager scored, Lowe to third.3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 1Clement doubled to left, Horwitz scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Horwitz doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored and Springer scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1García singled to center, Semien scored, Grossman to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TEX +100 / TOR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 45.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.7 – 3.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −24 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 1.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +33 Elo | TEX 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 24th of 3022–29 | Road vs home | 23–2827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–59 | 49–53 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–40 | 21–33 |
| Underdog | 22–19 | 28–20 |
| Overs–unders | 42–60–1 | 55–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 6–1 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.