Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Spencer HorwitzBatting1-3
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Lowe grounded into fielder's choice to first, B. Lowe scored, Mead out at second.13–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul13–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul13–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–0
- 7J. Lowe singled to center, Paredes scored, B. Lowe to second.12–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play12–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 112–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul12–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging12–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–0
- 7Arozarena hit sacrifice fly to left, Palacios scored.11–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul11–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–0
- 7B. Lowe singled to right, Jackson scored, Paredes to second, Palacios to third.10–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 110–0
- 7Paredes walked, Walls scored, Palacios to second, Jackson to third.9–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 49–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 39–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 29–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–0
- 7Jackson doubled to center, Rosario scored, Walls to third.8–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–0
- 6Paredes singled to left, DeLuca scored and Jackson scored.7–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 27–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 6Jackson singled to center, Rosario scored and Walls scored, DeLuca to second.5–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 50%
- ML TB -110 / TOR -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 48.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -100
- TB -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 3.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +1 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +8 Elo | TB 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 13th of 3024–24 | Road vs home | 23–2726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–55 | 49–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–34 | 21–32 |
| Underdog | 27–21 | 28–20 |
| Overs–unders | 51–51 | 54–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 12–10 TOR in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.