Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Matt CarpenterBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Siani singled to right, Arenado scored, Goldschmidt to second, Nootbaar to third.6–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 36–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 7Lowe homered to left center (407 feet), García scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Semien scored on error, García safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Arenado.4–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Taveras grounded out to first, Lowe scored, Heim to second, Duran to third.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 4Heim singled to right, Langford scored, Duran to second, Lowe to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Carpenter homered to right center (412 feet), Goldschmidt scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Seager doubled to right, Smith scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 51%
- ML TEX -115 / STL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +9 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +13 Elo | TEX 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 3022–32 | Road vs home | 26–2415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–61 | 51–53 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–41 | 16–33 |
| Underdog | 23–20 | 35–20 |
| Overs–unders | 45–60–1 | 49–53–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 2–1 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.