Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- DJ HerzPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goldschmidt homered to left (392 feet).3–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Siani singled to left, Nootbaar scored, Pagés to third.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 6Yepez hit sacrifice fly to right, Wood scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 3Thomas doubled to left, Young scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Abrams grounded out to first, Adams scored, Young to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Pagés tripled to center, Nootbaar scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Contreras homered to left (406 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 58%
- ML WSH +130 / STL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- STL: Elo 54.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.9 – 4.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | 0 | WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +30 Elo | STL 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 18th of 3026–29 | Road vs home | 25–2416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–47 | 51–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 16–32 |
| Underdog | 49–35 | 35–20 |
| Overs–unders | 51–53–1 | 49–52–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–7 STL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.