Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith homered to right center (404 feet), Seager scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 13–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 6Jimenez hit sacrifice fly to right, Kirk scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Lowe singled to left, Langford scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 3Barger doubled to center, Varsho scored and Turner scored.0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Guerrero Jr. homered to right center (365 feet).0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Varsho homered to right center (395 feet), Clement scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Horwitz scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 55%
- ML TEX -135 / TOR +115
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 49.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +2 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +3 Elo | TOR 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 3022–31 | Road vs home | 25–2824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–60 | 50–54 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–40 | 22–34 |
| Underdog | 23–20 | 28–20 |
| Overs–unders | 44–60–1 | 57–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 6–3 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.