Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.2 IP, 8 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Benson doubled to center, Espinal scored.13–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 213–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 113–4
- 8Bellinger singled to center, Happ scored and Paredes scored.13–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play13–3
- 7Crow-Armstrong doubled to left, Bethancourt scored and Hoerner scored, Crow-Armstrong out stretching at third.11–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 111–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–3
- 6Suzuki doubled to left, Paredes scored.9–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking9–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 6Happ homered to center (424 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.8–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 18–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–3
- 5Fraley homered to right (368 feet), Stephenson scored and Candelario scored.6–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 26–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 3Wisdom doubled to left, Bellinger scored and Suzuki scored, Wisdom thrown out at third.6–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 3Suzuki doubled to left, Paredes scored and Happ scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 9 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 57%
- ML CHC +125 / CIN -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 56.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- CIN -135
- CHC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +6 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +45 Elo | CIN 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 24th of 3024–33 | Road vs home | 27–2821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–55 | 59–48 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–34 | 24–29 |
| Underdog | 41–21 | 35–19 |
| Overs–unders | 46–61–1 | 48–58–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 8–14 CIN in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.