Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Patrick WisdomBatting1-1, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Royals- Hunter RenfroeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hoerner grounded into fielder's choice to third, Swanson scored, Bote to second.9–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–4
- 9Bote singled to right, Tauchman scored, Swanson to third.8–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 38–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 7Wisdom homered to left center (430 feet), Morel scored, Tauchman scored and Swanson scored.7–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 6Renfroe singled to left, Perez scored and Fermin scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Witt Jr. doubled to left, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. thrown out at third.3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Busch grounded out to first, Crow-Armstrong scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Renfroe homered to left center (416 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Suzuki homered to center (420 feet), Busch scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Fair odds
- KC -103
- CHC +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +15 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +13 Elo | KC 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 24th of 3022–31 | Road vs home | 36–203rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–53 | 60–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–33 | 25–23 |
| Underdog | 40–20 | 35–20 |
| Overs–unders | 45–59–1 | 42–60–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 2–2 KC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.