Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras doubled to center, Perkins scored.3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6Turang singled to right, Adames scored, Bauers to second, Chourio to third.2–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Suzuki homered to left center (391 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Happ singled to right, Suzuki scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Chourio singled to center, Ortiz scored, Adames to second, Hoskins to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML MIL +125 / CHC -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 49.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- CHC -135
- MIL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.4 – 4.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +6 | MIL: Rob Zastryzny: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +4 Elo | MIL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 9th of 3029–26 | Road vs home | 27–2415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–43 | 52–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–29 | 12–32 |
| Underdog | 33–14 | 40–19 |
| Overs–unders | 56–44 | 45–57–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 14–11 CHC in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 25.