Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 10Hoerner walked, Tauchman scored, Amaya to second, Swanson to third.1–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 41–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 9Suzuki singled to center, Hoerner scored.1–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Suárez homered to left (417 feet).1–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML ARI +105 / CHC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 52.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.6 – 3.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +15 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +15 Elo | CHC 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 13th of 3025–24 | Road vs home | 25–2314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–48 | 51–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–25 | 12–30 |
| Underdog | 31–23 | 39–19 |
| Overs–unders | 53–45–1 | 45–54–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 9–3 CHC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.