Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Miguel AmayaBatting2-3
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Carroll homered to right center (418 feet), Perdomo scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Thomas homered to left center (363 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 55%
- ML ARI -135 / CHC +115
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 51.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -124
- CHC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.5 – 4.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −16 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +7 Elo | ARI 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 12th of 3024–24 | Road vs home | 25–2213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–48 | 51–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–25 | 12–30 |
| Underdog | 31–23 | 39–18 |
| Overs–unders | 53–44–1 | 45–53–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 8–3 CHC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.