Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting3-5
- Justin SteelePitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Happ hit sacrifice fly to right, Hoerner scored.5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Morel singled to center, Busch scored, Suzuki to third.5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Carroll hit sacrifice fly to center, Gurriel Jr. scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 5Grichuk singled to left, Moreno scored, Walker to second, Gurriel Jr. to third.4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 3Walker singled to left, Marte scored and Moreno scored, Gurriel Jr. to second.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Moreno singled to center, Thomas scored, Marte to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 58%
- ML ARI +130 / CHC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -140
- ARI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.4 – 4.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +9 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +35 Elo | CHC 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3023–24 | Road vs home | 25–2113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–48 | 51–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 19–25 | 12–29 |
| Underdog | 30–23 | 39–18 |
| Overs–unders | 53–43–1 | 45–52–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 7–3 CHC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.