Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-5
- Jameson TaillonPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turang singled to center, Bauers scored.1–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 50%
- ML MIL -110 / CHC -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 50.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -100
- MIL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +11 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +4 Elo | CHC 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 10th of 3028–26 | Road vs home | 27–2313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–43 | 52–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–29 | 12–31 |
| Underdog | 32–14 | 40–19 |
| Overs–unders | 56–43 | 45–56–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 13–11 CHC in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.