Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Adames homered to right center (396 feet).1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Happ homered to right center (377 feet).0–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Tauchman scored on Myers wild pitch, Amaya to second on wild pitch by Myers, Swanson to third on wild pitch by Myers.0–2
- 4Tauchman scored on Myers wild pitch, Amaya to second on wild pitch by Myers, Swanson to third on wild pitch by Myers.0–2
- 3Busch singled to center, Amaya scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML MIL -120 / CHC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 53.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +4 | MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +25 Elo | MIL 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 8th of 3028–25 | Road vs home | 26–2314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–42 | 51–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–28 | 12–31 |
| Underdog | 32–14 | 39–19 |
| Overs–unders | 56–42 | 45–55–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 13–10 CHC in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.