Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4, 1 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Perez singled to center, Pasquantino scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Marte scored on throwing error by catcher Fermin, Thomas stole third.6–1
- 8Marte scored on throwing error by catcher Fermin, Thomas stole third.6–1
- 5Marte homered to right (412 feet), Perdomo scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 1Witt Jr. doubled to left, Hampson scored.3–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Moreno singled to center, Marte scored and Gurriel Jr. scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 1Walker hit sacrifice fly to right, Carroll scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML ARI -105 / KC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- KC: Elo 52.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- ARI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.7 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −12 | ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +14 Elo | KC 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 14th of 3025–26 | Road vs home | 35–183rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–49 | 59–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 20–25 | 24–21 |
| Underdog | 32–24 | 35–20 |
| Overs–unders | 54–46–1 | 41–58–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 2–2 KC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.