Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yilber DiazPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 0 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suárez hit sacrifice fly to center, Walker scored.4–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–10
- 6Perez hit sacrifice fly to left, Witt Jr. scored.3–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–10
- 5Renfroe homered to left center (404 feet).3–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 4Witt Jr. homered to center (431 feet), Isbel scored and Frazier scored.3–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 4Isbel doubled to right, Garcia scored.3–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 33–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 3Perez homered to center (425 feet), Pasquantino scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 3Pasquantino singled to center, Witt Jr. scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 3Marte homered to left (415 feet), Thomas scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Thomas doubled to center, Newman scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Isbel singled to center, Waters scored, Garcia to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 57%
- ML ARI +120 / KC -145
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- KC: Elo 49.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- KC -130
- ARI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +2 | ARI: Yilber Diaz: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +2 Elo | ARI 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3025–25 | Road vs home | 34–183rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–48 | 58–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 20–25 | 23–21 |
| Underdog | 32–23 | 35–20 |
| Overs–unders | 53–46–1 | 40–58–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 2–1 KC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.