Arizona Diamondbacks at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pasquantino singled to right, Garcia scored and Witt Jr. scored.8–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 38–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 9Marte homered to center (419 feet), Moreno scored and Carroll scored.8–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 9Moreno doubled to center, Perdomo scored and Gurriel Jr. scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 4Isbel scored on R. Nelson wild pitch.3–4
- 4Isbel scored on R. Nelson wild pitch.3–4
- 4Isbel tripled to left, Garcia scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Garcia grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Massey scored, Waters out at second.3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Walker homered to left center (405 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pederson homered to center (445 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Waters doubled to right, Fermin scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Suárez homered to left (416 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML ARI +105 / KC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- KC: Elo 50.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.1 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −1 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +6 Elo | KC 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3026–26 | Road vs home | 35–193rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–49 | 59–42 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 20–25 | 24–22 |
| Underdog | 33–24 | 35–20 |
| Overs–unders | 54–47–1 | 41–59–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 3–2 KC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.