Cincinnati Reds at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting3-4
- Hunter GreenePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-4
- Shawn ArmstrongPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Palacios walked, B. Lowe scored, Rosario to second, Paredes to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 41–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 8Rosario struck out, Caballero scored on Cruz wild pitch, Rosario to first on wild pitch by Cruz, Paredes to second on wild pitch by Cruz, B. Lowe to third on wild pitch by Cruz.1–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Wynns singled to center, Fairchild scored, Espinal thrown out at home.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML CIN -120 / TB +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 47.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −2 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shawn Armstrong: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +20 Elo | TB 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 15th of 3025–26 | Road vs home | 28–2818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–47 | 49–56 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–28 | 21–35 |
| Underdog | 34–19 | 28–21 |
| Overs–unders | 48–55–1 | 52–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 2–3 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.