Cincinnati Reds at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jeimer CandelarioBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rays- Jose CaballeroBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Fairchild doubled to left, Slater scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Caballero singled to left, DeLuca scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Siri grounded out to shortstop, Paredes scored, DeLuca to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Candelario doubled to right, Friedl scored and India scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML CIN -110 / TB -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- TB: Elo 53.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -100
- CIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +3 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +22 Elo | TB 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 15th of 3024–25 | Road vs home | 27–2718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–46 | 48–55 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–28 | 20–34 |
| Underdog | 33–18 | 28–21 |
| Overs–unders | 48–53–1 | 52–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 1–2 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.