Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Reds- Santiago EspinalBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Steer doubled to left, Benson scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Happ scored on Cruz wild pitch, Bellinger to second on wild pitch by Cruz, Suzuki to third on wild pitch by Cruz.3–5
- 7Happ scored on Cruz wild pitch, Bellinger to second on wild pitch by Cruz, Suzuki to third on wild pitch by Cruz.3–5
- 6Bellinger homered to right center (361 feet), Suzuki scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 2Stephenson singled to left, India scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Espinal homered to right (341 feet), Marte scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 1Friedl singled to center, India scored and Stephenson scored, Candelario to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML CHC -130 / CIN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 48.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.9 – 4.6 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −5 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Tony Santillan (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +8 Elo | CIN 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 24th of 3024–32 | Road vs home | 26–2822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–54 | 58–48 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–33 | 24–29 |
| Underdog | 41–21 | 34–19 |
| Overs–unders | 46–60–1 | 48–57–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 8–13 CIN in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.