Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carson SpiersPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Busch homered to center (398 feet).1–7
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 21–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 11–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 8Candelario homered to right (402 feet).0–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Friedl homered to right (374 feet), Espinal scored and India scored.0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 3Steer scored on Taillon wild pitch.0–3
- 3Steer scored on Taillon wild pitch.0–3
- 2Benson homered to right (388 feet), Fraley scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML CHC -115 / CIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 52.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.8 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −15 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Carson Spiers: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +15 Elo | CHC 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 24th of 3024–31 | Road vs home | 25–2824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–53 | 57–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–33 | 23–29 |
| Underdog | 41–20 | 34–19 |
| Overs–unders | 46–59–1 | 48–56–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 8–12 CIN in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.