Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Patrick WisdomBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Swanson hit sacrifice fly to left, Happ scored.7–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 9Busch singled to center, Suzuki scored, Happ to third.6–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 9Wisdom homered to center (438 feet).5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 6Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Bote scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Bote doubled to right, Busch scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 4Fermin homered to left (338 feet).2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Hoerner doubled to left, Bethancourt scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 1Renfroe singled to center, Massey scored and Witt Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 61%
- ML CHC +145 / KC -175
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- KC: Elo 50.4%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- KC -156
- CHC +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 5.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +1 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +3 Elo | KC 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 3023–31 | Road vs home | 36–214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–53 | 60–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–33 | 25–23 |
| Underdog | 40–20 | 35–20 |
| Overs–unders | 45–59–1 | 42–60–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 3–2 KC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.