Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Tommy PhamBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Siani reached on infield single to pitcher, Carpenter scored, Pham to second.1–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–10
- 7Donovan hit sacrifice fly to right, Arenado scored, Carpenter to third.1–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–9
- 6Semien singled to center, Smith scored, Seager to second.1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 5Donovan singled to center, Pham scored.0–8
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–8
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 30–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 5Pham doubled to left, Arenado scored and Burleson scored.0–7
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 30–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 5Burleson reached on infield single to shortstop, Siani scored and Contreras scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Siani sacrificed to pitcher, Donovan scored, Pagés to second.0–3
- 2Pagés grounded into fielder's choice to first, Pham scored, Donovan third.0–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 51%
- ML TEX -115 / STL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.8 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −1 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +7 Elo | TEX 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 25th of 3023–33 | Road vs home | 27–2515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–62 | 52–54 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–42 | 16–34 |
| Underdog | 24–20 | 36–20 |
| Overs–unders | 47–60–1 | 51–53–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–2 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.