St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-5
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Christian BethancourtBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suzuki scored.3–6
- 8Suzuki scored.3–6
- 8Donovan walked, Arenado scored, Pham to second, Nootbaar to third.3–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 43–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 33–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pham walked, Burleson scored, Nootbaar to second, Arenado to third.2–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 42–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 3Goldschmidt walked, Siani scored, Contreras to second, Winn to third.1–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 41–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 2Busch homered to right center (386 feet).0–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 2Bethancourt homered to right center (384 feet), Swanson scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Hoerner scored, Swanson to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML STL -115 / CHC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- STL: Elo 43.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 4.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +5 | STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +44 Elo | CHC 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 15th of 3027–28 | Road vs home | 28–2515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–54 | 54–56 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–34 | 12–35 |
| Underdog | 37–20 | 42–21 |
| Overs–unders | 53–53–2 | 48–61–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 11–12 CHC in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.