St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tauchman doubled to left, Swanson scored.4–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 24–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 14–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 9Swanson doubled to left, Hoerner scored.4–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 9Bellinger homered to center (399 feet).4–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 7Arenado singled to left, Goldschmidt scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Winn homered to left (375 feet), Siani scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Suzuki homered to center (459 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Swanson singled to center, Bellinger scored, Hoerner to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Goldschmidt homered to center (404 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML STL +100 / CHC -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.7 – 3.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +13 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +60 Elo | CHC 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 14th of 3027–27 | Road vs home | 27–2516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–54 | 54–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–34 | 12–34 |
| Underdog | 36–20 | 42–21 |
| Overs–unders | 52–53–2 | 47–61–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 11–11 CHC in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.