St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Amaya homered to center (390 feet).2–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 6Tauchman homered to left center (367 feet).2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to center, Hoerner scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Busch singled to right, Amaya scored, Hoerner to third.2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Tauchman scored on a balk.2–2
- 4Tauchman scored on a balk.2–2
- 4Swanson grounded out to shortstop, Paredes scored, Tauchman to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Winn homered to center (402 feet), Nootbaar scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML STL +120 / CHC -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -130
- STL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +1 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +39 Elo | CHC 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 15th of 3028–29 | Road vs home | 29–2616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–55 | 55–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–34 | 13–36 |
| Underdog | 38–21 | 42–21 |
| Overs–unders | 55–53–2 | 50–61–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 12–13 CHC in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 25.