New York Mets at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Jake CaveBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Díaz singled to center, Hilliard scored, Toglia to third.3–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 5Rodgers doubled to third, Tovar scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5Nimmo singled to center, Taylor scored, Nimmo to second.3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Cave homered to left (372 feet), Díaz scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 4Díaz doubled to right, Rodgers scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Bryant singled to center, Rodgers scored on fielding error by third baseman Vientos, Bryant safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Bader, Bryant safe at third on error.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Bader singled to left, Alonso scored and Iglesias scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 58%
- ML NYM -155 / COL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- NYM: Elo 58.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -140
- COL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 6.1 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +9 | NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +58 Elo | NYM 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.629th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 6th of 3028–24 | Road vs home | 24–2726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–58 | 55–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 24–37 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 28–21 | 54–48 |
| Overs–unders | 57–53 | 60–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–5 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.