Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Blake PerkinsBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kelenic homered to right center (399 feet).8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 8Monasterio singled to left, Ortiz scored.8–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–4
- 8Ortiz doubled to left, Adames scored.7–4
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 27–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 6Perkins singled to center, Adames scored and Contreras scored, Perkins to second, Ortiz to third.6–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 6Sánchez singled to left, Chourio scored, Hoskins to second.4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Riley homered to left center (428 feet), Merrifield scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Perkins singled to right, Sánchez scored, Ortiz to third.3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Ortiz singled to left, Hoskins scored, Sánchez to second.2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Ortiz doubled to right, Sánchez scored on fielding error by right fielder Soler, Ortiz to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Olson hit sacrifice fly to center, Riley scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML MIL +140 / ATL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -149
- MIL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.8 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +18 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +29 Elo | ATL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 7th of 3032–28 | Road vs home | 32–249th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–49 | 51–60 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–34 | 39–51 |
| Underdog | 36–15 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 63–47 | 39–69–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–7 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.