Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Murphy homered to left (409 feet).3–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 8Hoskins hit sacrifice fly to center, Mitchell scored.2–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 8Chourio homered to left (388 feet), Adames scored.2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 7Ortiz tripled to center, Frelick scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 6Adames homered to left center (416 feet), Turang scored and Bauers scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Hoskins homered to left center (377 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Arcia homered to center (421 feet).2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Ozuna homered to left (438 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML ATL -105 / MIL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 53.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −1 | ATL: Grant Holmes (no track record yet) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +23 Elo | MIL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 15th of 3026–27 | Road vs home | 30–195th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–56 | 58–45 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 36–48 | 24–31 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 34–14 |
| Overs–unders | 36–64–3 | 58–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–1 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.