Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting4-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle TylerPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7De La Cruz grounded out to third, Edwards scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 5Hoskins hit sacrifice fly to center, Bauers scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 5Chourio homered to center (390 feet).1–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4Turang singled to left, Mitchell scored, Ortiz to second.1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Ortiz reached on infield single to third, Hoskins scored, Mitchell to third.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 1Bauers homered to right (404 feet), Turang scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Edwards homered to right (374 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 65%
- Fair odds
- MIL -158
- MIA +158 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.6 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +12 | MIA: Kyle Tyler: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +104 Elo | MIL 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 28th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 27th of 3017–32 | Road vs home | 29–195th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–57 | 58–45 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 24–31 |
| Underdog | 46–38 | 34–14 |
| Overs–unders | 59–45–1 | 58–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 7–5 MIL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.