Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Josh BellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bell homered to right center (410 feet), Fortes scored and De La Cruz scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7De La Cruz singled to center, Bruján scored, Fortes to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Fortes reached on bunt single to first, Rivera scored, Bruján to second.3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Hoskins homered to left center (386 feet), Adames scored and Bauers scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 2Bride singled to right, J. Sánchez scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2J. Sánchez doubled to center, Burger scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 59%
- ML MIA +135 / MIL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -145
- MIA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −12 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +83 Elo | MIL 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 27th of 3016–32 | Road vs home | 29–185th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–57 | 58–44 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 24–30 |
| Underdog | 45–38 | 34–14 |
| Overs–unders | 58–45–1 | 57–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–5 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.