Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bell homered to left center (384 feet).6–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 26–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 16–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 4Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to left, Contreras scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 3Hoskins homered to left center (401 feet).5–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 2Chisholm Jr. scored on error and Fortes scored, De La Cruz safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Adames, Edwards to second.5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Burger homered to left (413 feet).3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1De La Cruz homered to left (393 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 67%
- ML MIA +195 / MIL -235
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 66.5%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -207
- MIA +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +10 | MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +119 Elo | MIL 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 67.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 27th of 3015–32 | Road vs home | 29–175th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–57 | 58–43 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 24–29 |
| Underdog | 44–38 | 34–14 |
| Overs–unders | 57–45–1 | 56–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–5 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.