Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chourio singled to left, Ortiz scored, Perkins to second.8–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 18–3
- 8Turang hit sacrifice fly to left, Frelick scored.7–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Contreras homered to center (439 feet).6–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 6Perkins singled to right, Adames scored and Frelick scored, Ortiz to third.5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 4Vargas singled to center, L. García Jr. scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Abrams homered to center (396 feet), Young scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Mitchell doubled to left, Frelick scored and Hoskins scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Hoskins doubled to left, Bauers scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML MIL -115 / WSH -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 53.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +15 | MIL: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +27 Elo | MIL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 8th of 3030–26 | Road vs home | 23–2726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–47 | 61–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–32 | 9–12 |
| Underdog | 34–15 | 52–36 |
| Overs–unders | 60–46 | 54–54–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–5 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.