Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Alex CallBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carroll homered to right center (397 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.8–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–9
- 9Marte homered to right (396 feet), Perdomo scored.8–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 18–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–7
- 9Perdomo singled to right, Thomas scored.8–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 8Pederson singled to left, Moreno scored, Gurriel Jr. to second.8–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 18–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 7Perdomo singled to left, Suárez scored.8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Ruiz singled to center, Ramírez scored, Wood to second.8–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 6Ramírez hit a ground rule double, Lipscomb scored.7–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Marte singled to center, Suárez scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Newman doubled to right, Gurriel Jr. scored.6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 2Ramírez singled to center, Abrams scored.6–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 1Call homered to left (376 feet), Wood scored and Ruiz scored.5–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Ruiz doubled to left, Ramírez scored, Wood to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Wood singled to right, Yepez scored, Ramírez to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 59%
- ML WSH +135 / ARI -160
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- ARI: Elo 57.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -145
- WSH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −12 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +52 Elo | ARI 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 18th of 3026–30 | Road vs home | 28–2514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–47 | 55–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 21–27 |
| Underdog | 50–35 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders | 51–54–1 | 57–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–7 ARI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.