Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yilber DiazPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Gurriel Jr. homered to left (411 feet).6–5
- 10Pitch 9 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 10Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 36–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 26–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 10Suárez homered to left center (387 feet), McCarthy scored.6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 10Hayes singled to left, Cruz scored and Williams scored, Palacios to second.6–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 10Williams hit by pitch, Grandal scored, Cruz to second, McCutchen to third.4–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 10Bae scored on Martinez wild pitch, McCutchen to second on wild pitch by Martinez, Grandal to third on wild pitch by Martinez.3–2
- 10Bae scored on Martinez wild pitch, McCutchen to second on wild pitch by Martinez, Grandal to third on wild pitch by Martinez.3–2
- 9Bart doubled to right, Williams scored.2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Cruz homered to right (408 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Suárez hit sacrifice fly to right, McCarthy scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 4McCarthy tripled to right, Pederson scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML PIT +100 / ARI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 53.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.2 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −8 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Yilber Diaz: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +24 Elo | ARI 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.02nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 13th of 3026–26 | Road vs home | 28–2414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–50 | 55–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–29 | 21–26 |
| Underdog | 38–21 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders | 48–54 | 56–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–6 ARI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.