Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6McCarthy singled to right, Pederson scored.5–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–9
- 6Pederson tripled to right, Gurriel Jr. scored and Walker scored.5–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–8
- 6Joe grounded out to pitcher, Cruz scored.5–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 5Marte hit sacrifice fly to right, Suárez scored.4–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 5Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to right, McCarthy scored, Suárez to third.4–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 34–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 5Taylor reached on infield single to second, Bart scored, Taylor out stretching at second.4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Bae hit sacrifice fly to center, Hayes scored, Bart to third.3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Bart doubled to left, Palacios scored, Hayes to third.2–4
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 12–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 2Marte homered to right center (415 feet), Perdomo scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 60%
- ML PIT +140 / ARI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- ARI: Elo 56.7%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -153
- PIT +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +11 | PIT: Marco Gonzales: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +47 Elo | ARI 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.93rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3026–25 | Road vs home | 27–2414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–49 | 54–50 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–29 | 20–26 |
| Underdog | 38–20 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders | 47–54 | 55–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–5 ARI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.