Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Joshua PalaciosBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Joc PedersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Gurriel Jr. scored on Mlodzinski wild pitch.3–4
- 6Gurriel Jr. scored on Mlodzinski wild pitch.3–4
- 6Moreno singled to right, Walker scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Pederson homered to right center (453 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 3Marte hit sacrifice fly to left, Carroll scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 2McCutchen doubled to center, Bart scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Palacios singled to right, McCutchen scored and N. Gonzales scored, Tellez to second.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 61%
- ML PIT +145 / ARI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 55.4%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -156
- PIT +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +10 | PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +38 Elo | ARI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.93rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3026–24 | Road vs home | 26–2416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–49 | 54–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–29 | 20–25 |
| Underdog | 37–20 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders | 47–53 | 55–47–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–4 ARI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.