Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jarred KelenicBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Joe RossPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sánchez singled to left, Chourio scored, Frelick to second.5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 4Kelenic homered to left (369 feet).5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 3Rosario singled to right, Ozuna scored and Riley scored, Olson to third.4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Ozuna singled to right, Kelenic scored, Riley to second.2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Riley singled to right, Alvarez Jr. scored, Kelenic to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML ATL -105 / MIL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 54.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −12 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 1.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Joe Ross: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +29 Elo | MIL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 16th of 3026–28 | Road vs home | 31–195th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–57 | 59–45 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 36–48 | 25–31 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 34–14 |
| Overs–unders | 37–64–3 | 59–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–2 MIL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.