Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8d'Arnaud homered to left center (412 feet).6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 8Olson homered to center (416 feet).5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Riley singled to left, Kelenic scored and Merrifield scored, Soler to second.4–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4d'Arnaud homered to left (396 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Olson homered to left center (390 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Perkins hit sacrifice fly to right, Hoskins scored, Sánchez to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Sánchez singled to left, Chourio scored, Hoskins to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML ATL -120 / MIL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 49.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.8 – 3.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +7 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +5 Elo | MIL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 15th of 3027–28 | Road vs home | 31–205th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–57 | 59–46 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 36–48 | 25–32 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 34–14 |
| Overs–unders | 37–65–3 | 59–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–2 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.