Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting3-4
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Abrams scored, Wood to second on passed ball by Herrera, Nuñez to third on passed ball by Herrera.4–5
- 9Abrams scored, Wood to second on passed ball by Herrera, Nuñez to third on passed ball by Herrera.4–5
- 9Abrams doubled to center, Young scored.3–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 8L. García Jr. singled to center, Yepez scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball 32–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 12–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 6Herrera doubled to center, Carroll scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 6Carroll singled to right, Perdomo scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 6Perdomo singled to left, Grichuk scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Smith grounded out to first, Suárez scored, Grichuk to third.1–2
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 31–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 62%
- ML WSH +150 / ARI -180
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 61.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- ARI -161
- WSH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.2 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +11 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +84 Elo | ARI 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3026–32 | Road vs home | 30–2513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–48 | 56–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 22–28 |
| Underdog | 51–36 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders | 53–54–1 | 59–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–9 ARI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.