Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-3
- Patrick CorbinPitching3.0 IP, 10 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting4-6, 3 HR, 5 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thomas doubled to right, Carroll scored and Smith scored, Herrera to third.0–17
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–17
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–17
- 8Smith singled to center, Newman scored, Carroll to third.0–15
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–15
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–15
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–15
- 7Suárez homered to left center (390 feet).0–14
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–14
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–14
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–14
- 6Perdomo doubled to left, McCarthy scored, Carroll to third.0–13
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–13
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–13
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 30–13
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–13
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–13
- 6Suárez homered to left (447 feet).0–12
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–12
- 3Moreno hit sacrifice fly to right, Perdomo scored, Marte to third.0–11
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–11
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–11
- 3Marte singled to left, Carroll scored, Marte to second, Perdomo to second, Perdomo safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Wood.0–10
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–10
- 2McCarthy doubled to right, Grichuk scored.0–9
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–9
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–9
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 2Grichuk doubled to center, Suárez scored.0–8
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–8
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–8
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 2Suárez reached on infield single to first, Gurriel Jr. scored.0–7
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 60%
- ML WSH +140 / ARI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 59.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -149
- WSH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.3 – 5.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −4 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +64 Elo | ARI 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 20th of 3026–31 | Road vs home | 29–2514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–47 | 55–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 21–28 |
| Underdog | 51–35 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders | 52–54–1 | 58–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–8 ARI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.