Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle TylerPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7J. Sánchez doubled to left, Fortes scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 24–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5J. Sánchez doubled to center, Edwards scored, Burger to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Burger singled to right, Fortes scored, Edwards to third.2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 3Rosario grounded into fielder's choice to second, Olson scored, d'Arnaud out at second, Arcia to third.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Ozuna homered to left (428 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Burger homered to center (409 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Olson singled to left, Soler scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 68%
- ML MIA +200 / ATL -245
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 62.9%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -213
- MIA +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.9 – 5.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −16 | MIA: Kyle Tyler: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +92 Elo | ATL 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 64.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 27th of 3018–36 | Road vs home | 32–215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–60 | 51–57 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 39–48 |
| Underdog | 47–41 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 61–47–1 | 38–67–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–16 ATL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.