Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rays- Christopher MorelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8B. Lowe doubled to center, Díaz scored.3–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 7Caballero scored on a balk.3–8
- 7Caballero scored on a balk.3–8
- 7Caballero scored on a balk.3–8
- 7Caballero stole home.3–8
- 7Caballero doubled to left, J. Lowe scored, Caballero to third.3–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 6Díaz singled to left, Palacios scored and Rortvedt scored, Walls to second.3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 6Rortvedt singled to left, J. Lowe scored and Morel scored, Palacios to second.3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6J. Lowe doubled to right, B. Lowe scored, Morel to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Burger homered to left (408 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Morel homered to center (420 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 1Rivera homered to left (372 feet), Edwards scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 60%
- ML MIA +140 / TB -165
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- TB: Elo 65.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -149
- MIA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.3 – 4.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +29 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +109 Elo | TB 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 27th of 3017–33 | Road vs home | 29–2818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–57 | 50–56 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 21–35 |
| Underdog | 46–38 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders | 59–45–1 | 52–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–5 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.