Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Roddery MunozPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rays- Christopher MorelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Edwards singled to right, Bruján scored and Gordon scored, A. Sánchez to third.6–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 36–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 3Burger homered to left center (423 feet), A. Sánchez scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 3Edwards hit sacrifice fly to center, Bruján scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2DeLuca tripled to left, Palacios scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Bride homered to left (367 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Morel homered to left (379 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TB 67%
- ML MIA +195 / TB -235
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- TB: Elo 63.6%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -207
- MIA +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.0 – 4.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +16 | MIA: Roddery Munoz: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +97 Elo | TB 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 63.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3017–34 | Road vs home | 30–2818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–58 | 51–56 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 22–35 |
| Underdog | 46–39 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders | 60–45–1 | 53–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–6 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.