Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jonah BrideBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Valente BellozoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Braves- Orlando ArciaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arcia singled to center, Riley scored, Olson to third.3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 8Ozuna hit sacrifice fly to left, Laureano scored.3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 8Soler singled to right, Kelenic scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Riley grounded out to second, Merrifield scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 5Arcia homered to right center (399 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Burger homered to left center (418 feet).3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 1Bride homered to left center (400 feet), Edwards scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 66%
- ML MIA +185 / ATL -225
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 67.3%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -197
- MIA +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.5 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +7 | MIA: Valente Bellozo: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +125 Elo | ATL 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 64.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 27th of 3018–35 | Road vs home | 31–215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–59 | 50–57 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 38–48 |
| Underdog | 47–40 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 61–46–1 | 38–66–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–15 ATL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.